Complications in Bank Valuations  757 You can think of a bank’s trading results as driven by the size of its trad- ing positions, the risk taken in trading (as measured by the total VaR), and the trading result per unit of risk (measured by return on VaR). The ratio of VaR to net trading position is an indication of the relative risk taking in trading. The more risk a bank takes in trading, the higher the expected trading return should be, as well as the required risk capital. The required equity risk capital for the trading activities follows from the VaR (and RWA), as discussed ear- lier in the chapter. Operating expenses, which include information technology (IT) infrastructure, back-office costs, and employee compensation, are partly related to the size of positions (or number of transactions) and partly related to trading results (for example, employee bonuses). Fee- and Commission-Generating Activities  A bank’s fee- and commission- generating activities, such as brokerage, transaction advisory, and asset man- agement services, have different economics, based on limited asset positions and minimal risk capital. The value drivers in asset management, for example, are very different from those in the interest-generating businesses, as the ge- neric example in Exhibit 38.16 shows. Key drivers are the growth of assets under management and the fees earned on those assets, such as management fees related to the amount of assets under management and performance fees related to the returns achieved on those assets. EXHIBIT 38.16  Value Drivers: Asset Management (Simplified) Value creation Growth Cost of equity Return on equity Operating expenses1 Equity Management fee revenues Performance-related management fee1 Assets under management Basic management fee1 Cost/income 3 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 6 2b 2a Key value drivers Assets under management: Value of customer assets under management Advisory fees: Performance fees and annual management fees Operating expenses: E.g., investment professionals Equity: Required equity levels Growth: Growth of volumes (e.g., assets under management from capital appreciation and net inflow) COE: Cost of equity 4 1 After taxes. 758  Banks Along with these variables in activities, remember that banks are highly leveraged and that many of their businesses are cyclical. When performing a bank valuation, you should not rely on point estimates but should use sce- narios for future financial performance to understand the range of possible outcomes and the key underlying value drivers. Summary The fundamentals of the discounted-cash-flow (DCF) approach laid out in this book apply equally to banks. The equity cash flow version of the DCF approach is most appropriate for valuing banks, because the operational and financial cash flows of these organizations cannot be separated, given that banks are expected to create value from funding as well as lending operations. Valuing banks remains a delicate task because of the diversity of the busi- ness portfolio, the cyclicality of many bank businesses (especially trading and fee-based business), and high leverage. Because of the difference in under- lying value drivers, it is best to value a bank by its key parts according to the source of income: interest-generating business, fee and commission busi- ness, and trading. To understand the sources of value creation in a bank’s interest-generating business, supplement the equity DCF approach with an economic-spread analysis. This analysis reveals which part of a bank’s net interest income represents true value creation and which reflects not value but charges for maturity mismatch and capital. When forecasting a bank’s finan- cials, handle the uncertainty surrounding the bank’s future performance and growth by using scenarios that capture the cyclicality of its key businesses.