Reorganizing the Financial Statements with Pensions  461 ­operating profit to rise in 2017. As a result, the unadjusted operating margin rose from 10.7 percent to 15.1 percent in 2017, even though adjusted margins—that is, those that only include service expense—fell from 11.3 percent to 10.8 percent. To eliminate plan performance from past operating expenses, remove the pen- sion expense—in Kellogg’s case, a $431 million gain in 2017—and replace it with the service cost of $114 million. These adjustments are shown in the middle sec- tion of Exhibit 23.3. If benchmarking across companies, one can also include the amortization of prior service costs as an operating expense. While these prior service costs represent real benefits given to employees, they are noncash and represent past changes. Therefore, they should not be incorporated into free cash flow. These service costs are also often small and unlikely to change our percep- tion of historical performance; for simplicity’s sake we usually treat them as non- operating. Under new accounting standards, the pension expense is no longer treated as operating. Instead, service cost is allocated to the appropriate operating expense account (cost of goods sold or SG&A), and the nonoperating portion of pension expense is treated as “other income or expenses,” as is the case for Kellogg in 2018. Since other income or expenses usually accumulates nonop- erating items, this makes reorganizing simple. Given that accounting guidelines across countries may differ, always check the notes for the location of various elements and adjust accordingly. Expected Return and Earnings Manipulation To avoid volatility in the income statement, accounting standards allow com- panies to include an “expected return” on pension plan assets as part of pen- sion expense, rather than actual returns. For example, Exhibit 23.2 shows that Kellogg recorded $455 million in expected return on plan assets in 2018, even EXHIBIT 23.3  Kellogg: EBITA Adjusted for Pensions $ million 2016 2017 2018 Operating profits, unadjusted Revenues 13,014 12,923 13,547 Operating costs (11,619) (10,977) (11,841) EBITA, unadjusted 1,395 1,946 1,706 Operating profits, adjusted Revenues 13,014 12,923 13,547 Operating costs (11,619) (10,977) (11,841) Add: Net periodic (benefit) cost 199 (431) – Less: Service cost (119) (114) – EBITA, adjusted 1,475 1,401 1,706 Operating margin, % Operating margin, unadjusted 10.7 15.1 12.6 Operating margin, adjusted 11.3 10.8 12.6 Source: Kellog 2016–2018 annual reports. 462  Retirement Obligations though the plan assets lost $350 million that same year. This enables companies to smooth pension returns from year to year, avoiding volatility in net income. Since expected return must be estimated, company management has dis- cretion over the rate used—a license that management may sometimes use to manipulate accounting profitability. Bergstresser, Desai, and Rauh found that management increases expected rates of return to increase profitability im- mediately before acquiring other firms and before exercising stock options.5 They also found that companies with the weakest shareholder protections tend to use the highest estimates for expected return. With nonoperating items now incorporated into other income and expenses, cost of sales and operating profit are no longer affected by expected-return choices. Even so, net income remains susceptible, which is just one of many reasons why NOPAT, and not earnings per share (EPS), remains a critical measure of accurate benchmarking and financial forecasting. Pensions and the Cost of Capital A key component of valuation is the cost of equity, which is typically esti- mated using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and beta. As discussed in Chapter 15, it is difficult to accurately measure the beta of a single company. Therefore, we recommend using an industry beta derived from multiple com- panies in similar lines of business. To isolate the economic risk each company faces, it is important to remove the effect of leverage and, if meaningful, the effect of pensions from beta. In Exhibit 23.4, we present the pension details, debt, and equity of three consumer EXHIBIT 23.4  Capital Structures of Three ConsumerProducts Companies, 2018 $ million Kellogg General Mills Mondele–z Projected benefit obligations1 6,186 7,415 11,089 Value of plan assets1 (5,817) (6,904) (9,975) Unfunded pension liabilities 369 511 1,114 Debt, net of cash 9,221 16,225 19,826 Debt and debt equivalents 9,590 16,736 20,940 Market value of equity 19,784 25,073 58,197 Enterprise value 29,374 41,809 79,137 1 Includes domestic pensions, foreign pensions, and other retirement obligations. Source: Kellogg, General Mills, and Mondele–z 2018 annual reports. 5 D. B. Bergstresser, M. A. Desai, and J. Rauh, “Earnings Manipulation, Pension Assumptions, and Managerial Investment Decisions,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, no. 1 (February 2006): 157–195. For more on shareholder protection indexes, see P. Gompers, J. Ishii, and A. Metrick, “Corporate Gov- ernance and Equity Prices,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 1 (2003): 107–155.