Valuing a Company with Operating Leases  451 Valuation Using Cash Flow to Equity In general, we do not recommend a valuation model based on cash flow to equity, because it mixes assets of different risks and commingles operating performance with the capital structure. If implemented properly, however, a cash-flow-to-equity valuation can confirm the accuracy of the enterprise DCF process described in this chapter. It can also provide insight into choices made during the capitalization process. Exhibit 22.8 presents cash flow to equity for FlightCo. In this exhibit, each line item represents actual cash flowing into or out of the company, from the equity holder’s perspective. In the equity model, do not capitalize lease ex- pense. Instead, deduct the cash payments paid to the lessor when they occur. Since leases are expensed and not capitalized, do not include either the change in the right-of-use asset or the change in the operating lease liability. This stands in contrast to debt flows, where both interest expense and payoff of debt are included in the calculation, since they represent actual cash flows. EXHIBIT 22.7  FlightCo: Enterprise DCF Valuation $ million, except where noted Forecast year Free cash flow (FCF) Discount factor at 8.8% Present value of FCF Year 1 29.7 0.919 27.3 Year 2 29.8 0.845 25.2 Year 3 44.9 0.776 34.9 Value of operations 87.4 Less: Operating leases1 (27.1) Less: Debt (7.8) Equity value 52.4 1 The present value of operating leases, found in the liabilities section of the balance sheet. EXHIBIT 22.8  FlightCo: Cash Flow to Equity Holders $ million Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Revenue 75.0 75.0 75.0 Operating costs (40.0) (40.0) (40.0) Lease payments1 (9.0) (9.0) (12.0) Interest expense, debt (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) Earnings before taxes 25.6 25.7 22.7 Income taxes (4.9) (4.9) (4.9) Earnings after taxes 20.7 20.7 17.8 Change in inventory 0.0 0.0 15.0 Increase (decrease) in debt (1.2) (1.6) (5.0) Cash flow to equity 19.5 19.1 27.8 1 Cash-based lease payments. 452  Leases Exhibit 22.9 values cash flow to equity at the cost of equity. The cost of equity used to discount equity cash flows equals the cost of equity used to determine the weighted average cost of capital. One may think the cost of equity should fall, since the leverage associated with operating leases is being ignored. This is not the case, however. The underlying risk of equity has not changed when switching models, so the cost of equity should not change either. Discounting cash flow to equity at a 12 percent cost of equity leads to an equity valuation of $52.4 million. This is the same valuation as we calculated by using the enterprise DCF model. Adjusting Historical Financial Statements for Operating Leases As time progresses, distortions caused by operating leases will be forgotten in the same way most investors have forgotten the adjustments required for the long-defunct pooling of interests prior to 2000. Until then, it is important to recognize that historical financial statements will remain unadjusted. To assure consistency in historical analysis prior to 2019, adjust historical state- ments to match current accounting policy. In the analysis of Costco presented in Chapter 11 and Appendix H, we used information from their annual report to value operating leases and ad- just the historical financial statements accordingly. Exhibit 22.10 presents the valuation of operating leases for Costco in 2019, the year before Costco ad- opted the new standard.5 To value operating leases, we discount future lease payments at the cost of AA-rated debt. Lease commitments are reported in note 5 of Costco’s 2019 annual report. The company reports only the first five years of lease payments year by year. Lease payments beyond 2024 are lumped into a single undiscounted number. At the bottom of Exhibit 22.10, we value the lump sum using an annuity formula. In the formula, set the cash EXHIBIT 22.9  FlightCo: Valuation Using Cash Flow to Equity $ million, except where noted Forecast year Cash flow to equity (CFE) Discount factor, at 12% Present value of CFE Year 1 19.5 0.893 17.4 Year 2 19.1 0.797 15.3 Year 3 27.8 0.712 19.8 Equity value 52.4 5 Companies whose fiscal year ends after December 15 had to implement the new leasing standard in 2019. Since Costco’s fiscal year ended on September 1, 2019, it chose to adopt the new standard in 2020.