Appendix G  831 Local CAPM Some practitioners and academic researchers propose estimating the cost of capital for an investment opportunity in a particular country by using a local CAPM. The investment’s beta is then estimated versus the market portfolio of the country, and the market risk premium follows from the excess return of that same market portfolio over the local risk-free rate. The approach is theoretically correct if stocks are correlated to the global market portfolio only through the local market:6 β β β j G j L L G , , , = ×  (G.3) where β β j G j L j G , , = = beta of asset versus global market portfolio beta of asset versus local market portfolio beta of local market port j L L G β , = folio versus global market portfolio L G This implies that any international risk factors influencing the returns of com- panies in a given country are fully captured by the local market portfolio of that country. You can then indirectly estimate any asset’s global beta by mul- tiplying its local beta by the global beta of the local market. If the local stock market is fully integrated and correctly priced in the global market, its ex- pected return is: E r r E r r L f L G G f ( ) [ ( ) ] , = + − β  (G.4) where r L r r L f = = expected return for local market portfolio risk-free rate G G = return for global market portfolio Combining Equations G.3 and G.4 shows that the expected return for a stock j estimated via the local and global CAPM should be equal as well. Following the global CAPM, this return is given by: E r r E r r j f j G G f ( ) [ ( ) ] , = + − β Substituting the asset’s global beta by the indirect beta defined previously in Equation G.3 leads to: E r r E r r j f j L L G G f ( ) [ ( ) ] , , = + × − β β 6 See R. Stulz, “The Cost of Capital in Internationally Integrated Markets: The Case of Nestlé,” European Financial Management 1, no. 1 (1995): 11–22. 832  Appendix G This can be rearranged to show equivalence with the local CAPM: E r r E r r j f j L L f ( ) [ ( ) ] , = + − β Although the assumptions may not seem very realistic at face value, there is evidence that the local and global CAPM generate similar results. Empirical research finds that the cost of capital estimated for U.S. companies with a local CAPM is very close to the estimate based on a global CAPM.7 For U.S. stocks, this may not be surprising, as the U.S. market portfolio is well diversified and highly correlated with the global market portfolio. But supporting evidence also comes from nine developed economies, including not only the United States but also the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and smaller economies such as the Netherlands and Switzerland. An analysis of beta estimates for companies versus a local and global market portfolio has shown that for these countries, the betas are typically related, as indicated by Equation G.3.8 However, the local CAPM approach, when compared with the global CAPM, has some practical drawbacks. First is that when you apply the local CAPM to investments in different countries, you should estimate the local market risk premium and beta for each of these countries, instead of only the global market risk premium, as you would do when applying the global CAPM. Also, with a local CAPM, you cannot make a straightforward estimate of a company’s beta based on the average of the estimated betas for a sample of industry peers (which Chapter 15 recommends to reduce the standard error of the company’s beta). The reason is that if the peers are in different countries, their local betas are not directly comparable. Finally, local risk premiums are typically less stable over time than their aggregate, the global risk premium. For example, Exhibit G.1 compares the realized premiums on local stock mar- ket indexes with government bond returns for several countries and a globally diversified portfolio, using data from Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton’s analy- sis of long-term average returns on equities and corporate and government bonds.9 The individual countries’ risk premiums vary considerably, depend- ing on the time period over which they are measured, while the global pre- mium remains almost unchanged. Note that the risk premium differences shown in Exhibit G.1 do not mean that the price for risk varies across these countries. These differences are driven by several factors. First, levels of economic development and, therefore, profit 7 R. Harris, F. Marston, D. Mishra, and T. O’Brien, “Ex-Ante Cost of Equity Estimates of S&P 500 Firms: The Choice between Domestic and Global CAPM,” Financial Management 32, no. 3 (2003): 51–66. 8 See C. Koedijk, C. Kool, P. Schotman, and M. van Dijk, “The Cost of Capital in International Financial Markets: Local or Global?,” Journal of International Money and Finance 21, no. 6 (2002): 905–929. 9 E. Dimson, P. Marsh, and M. Staunton, Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002); and E. Dimson, P. Marsh, M. Staunton, and J. Wilmot, Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 (London: Credit Suisse Research Institute, 2016).