Companies Have Little Control over Their Cost of Capital  57 companies (say, the S&P 500), adjusted for the riskiness of the company rela- tive to the average of all companies. Within a company, individual business units can have different costs of capital if their risk profiles differ. The company’s overall cost of capital is simply a weighted average of its business units’ costs of capital. In banking, for example, risky trading operations carry much higher costs of capital than more stable retail banking units. Executives often fail to adequately incorporate the idea of opportunity cost in thinking about their cost of capital. Sometimes they mix up the opportunity cost of capital by associating different funding streams with different invest- ments. For example, when one company acquires another, the buyer might raise enough debt to pay for the entire company. It is tempting to say that the cost of capital for the acquisition is the cost of the debt. But this would be a mistake, because the risk of the target’s free cash flows does not equal the risk of the bondholders’ cash flows. To illustrate, say Company A is considering buying Company B. Both op- erate in the same product area with similar risk. Company A has no debt and an opportunity cost of capital of 8 percent. Suppose Company A can borrow at 4 percent after taxes. For a target company growing at 3 percent with $1 billion in earnings and a 15 percent return on capital, the value of the target would be $80 billion at a 4 percent cost of capital and $20 billion at an 8 percent cost of capital. To get a sense of how absurd it would be to use the 4 percent cost of capital, consider that the implied price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) at 4 percent is 80, compared with 20 at an 8 percent cost of capital. Companies growing at 3 percent don’t trade at a P/E of 80. In addition, if you apply the cost of debt to the acquisition, you end up with a perverse situation: Company A’s existing businesses are assigned an 8 percent cost of capital, and the acquired business is assigned a 4 percent cost of capital. In addition, the only reason Company A can borrow 100 percent of the cost of the acquisition is that it has unused debt capacity in its existing businesses. And don’t forget, the cost of capital is determined by the acquired company’s riskiness, not that of the parent company (although their risk pro- files are likely to be the same if they are in the same industry). Companies Have Little Control over Their Cost of Capital It might be surprising to learn that the cost of capital for a company with steady revenues, like Procter & Gamble, isn’t that different from a company like LyondellBasell, a chemical company in an industry known for having more variable earnings and cash flows. In 2019, most large companies’ WACC fell in the range of 7 to 9 percent. The range is small because investors pur- posely avoid putting all their eggs in one basket. The ability of investors to diversify their portfolios means that only nondiversifiable risk affects the cost 58  Risk and the Cost of Capital of capital. Furthermore, because nondiversifiable risk also generally affects all companies in the same industry in the same way, a company’s industry is what primarily drives its cost of capital. Companies in the same industry will have similar costs of capital. Stock market investors, especially institutional investors, may hold hun- dreds of different stocks in their portfolios. Even the most concentrated in- vestors have at least 50. As a result, their exposure to any single company is limited. It is possible to show how the total risk of a portfolio of stocks de- clines as more shares are added to the portfolio (Exhibit 4.1). The risk declines because companies’ cash flows are not perfectly correlated. Over any period of time, some will increase while others decline. One of the durable tenets of academic finance concerns the effect of diver- sification on the cost of capital. If diversification reduces risk to investors and it is not costly to diversify, then investors will not demand a higher return for any risks that can be eliminated through diversification. They require com- pensation only for risks they cannot diversify away. The risks they cannot diversify away are those that affect all compa- nies—for example, exposure to economic cycles. However, since most of the risks that companies face are, in fact, diversifiable, most risks don’t affect a company’s cost of capital. One way to see this in practice is to note the relatively narrow range of P/Es for large companies. Most large compa- nies have P/Es between 12 and 20. If the cost of capital varied from 5 to 15 percent instead of 7 to 9 percent, many more companies would have P/Es below 8 and above 25. Whether a company’s cost of capital is 7 percent or 9 percent or somewhere in between is a question of great dispute (as we explore in Chapter 15). For decades, the standard model for measuring differences in costs of capital has been the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The CAPM has been challenged EXHIBIT 4.1  Volatility of Portfolio Return Declines with Diversification 0 5 10 15 20 Volatility of portfolio return Number of stocks in portfolio Total risk Market volatility Nondiversifiable risk Diversifiable risk