Ebola epidemics, 18–19, 19f, 21, 23–24; co-epidemics with narratives, 23; SEIHFR model of, 294
Eckstein, Otto, 112
eclipse of the sun in 2017, 61–62
economic behavior affected by narratives, xi, xiii, xviii, 3; brief exposure to narrative and, 80;
difficulty in establishing connection, 93, 286; false narratives and, 97; forgetting and, x; with
impact changing through time, 93–95, 283–84; scripts involved in, 74; in small fraction of
population, 29; uncertain knowledge and, 96; years after the relevant narrative, 109. See also
consumption; economic events affected by narratives; investment; saving; spending
Economic Consequences of the Peace (Keynes), xvii, 26
economic events affected by narratives, xii; biggest such events in US since 1854, 111–12;
celebrities’ phrases with impact on, 75–76; difficulty of predicting, 58; economists’ presumption
about economic forces and, 76–77; by fake narratives, 85; by false narratives, 95; by frugality vs.
conspicuous consumption narratives, 136; by latent narratives of earlier years, 109; limited value
of quantitative indexes and, 74–75; seemingly irrelevant factors and, 67. See also causality
between narratives and events; depressions; economic behavior affected by narratives; recessions
economic fluctuations: driven by attention-getting narratives, 86; leading indicators approach to, 125;
seen as repetitive and forecastable, 124–25; self-fulfilling prophecies and, 73–74
economic forecasting: analogy to weather forecasting, 123–25; ARIMA models in, 295; business
cycle and, 124–25; causes of events and, 71; economists’ poor record of, xiii–xv, 301nn5–6;
epidemic models and, xi, 295; leading indicators approach to, 125, 309n10; many different
narratives required for, 267; moral imperative of, xv–xvii; promise of narrative economics for, xi,
xiv–xv, 13, 277; self-fulfilling prophecy in, 123–24, 198
economic growth: inflation and, 319n10; supply-side economics and, 48. See also GDP growth in US
economic institutions, importance of narratives and, 3, 14
economic man, as rational optimizer, 120
economic models, contagion of, 24–28, 27f
economic narratives: analytical value of looking at, 238; anniversaries of past events and, 76;
confluence of, 29–30; creative and innovative, 75; defined, 3; distorting professional narratives,
xiii; geographic pattern of spread, 296, 299; history of, going back to ancient Rome, 58–60; human
significance of stories and, 79–80; immense complexity of landscape of, 266–67; international,
110; judging which are important, 89–91; key features of, 87; medical model of epidemics and,
21–23; names attached to, 94–95; narratives that become economic, 74; originating with one or a
few people, 71–72; oversimplified variants of, 26; predictable workings of, 77; recurrence of, 107–
8, 109–10, 238; self-censorship of, encouraging panic, 115; seven key propositions with respect to,
103. See also constellations of narratives; contagion of economic narratives; moral dimensions of
economic narratives; mutation of economic narratives; narrative economics; narratives; viral
narratives
economic policy. See policy
economics profession: behind other disciplines in attention to narratives, 12–13, 13f; events as
natural experiments in, 72–73; potential of collaborative research for, 17, 302n1
economic stimulus: Keynes and Samuelson on effects of, 27–28; in Republican policy of 1920s, 189;
stimulate the economy as phrase in late twentieth century, 50–51
economic strength, perception of, 272
education, narrative-centered learning in, 77–78
efficiency experts, 184
Eichengreen, Barry, 133, 172
Einstein, Albert, 192, 199
Eisenhower, Dwight, 261
electric dollars, 193
electronic brain, 195