Chapter 10. Panic versus Confidence
1. Raymond Moley, quoted in Terkel, 1970, location 5151.
2. “The Financial Crisis,” New York Herald Tribune, September 26, 1857, p. 1.
3. Hannah, 1986.
4. “How the New Banking System Is Expected to Operate as a Cure for Business Panics,” Washington
Post, December 29, 1913, p. 5.
5. George Gallup, “The Gallup Poll: An Increasing Number of Voters Believe Business Will Improve
within Six Months,” Washington Post, February 4, 1938, p. X2.
6. Sidis, 1898, p. 6.
7. Marden, 1920, p. 175.
8. “First Scientific Weather Forecasting,” Chicago Daily Tribune, December 18, 1898, p. 29.
9. Diogenes, “Correspondence of the Mercury,” Charleston Mercury, February 15, 1858, p. 1.
10. The term leading indicators appears once in 1880 and twice in the 1920s in ProQuest News &
Newspapers, but it was not an established public concept until the Great Depression in the 1930s. The
significance of the 1938 Mitchell and Burns leading indicators in the history of economic thought is brought
out by Moore, 1983. There was also the very influential 1946 book by Burns and Mitchell that expanded on
the leading indicators. Arthur Burns later became chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, 1970–78, during
a period of exploding inflation that he was blamed for, adding further contagion of talk and celebrity status
to his forecasting model.
11. “Lays Bull Market to Coolidge ‘Tips,’ ” New York Times, August 24, 1928, referring to an Atlantic
article of that month.
12. “The Wall Street Journal Straws: Difficult to Take Profits,” Wall Street Journal, November 5, 1928,
p. 2.
13. “ ‘Why Does U.S. Fuss at Us’ Traders Ask: Public Eye Battle of Wall Street,” Chicago Daily
Tribune, February 18, 1929, p. 25.
14. “New Threats Made to Cut Speculation,” Washington Post, April 5, 1929, p. 1.
15. Lewis H. Haney, “Looking 1930 in the Face,” North American Review 229(3) (March 1930): 365.
16. New York Times, January 5, 1931.
17. New York Times, September 25, 1884, p. 4.
18. “Reckless Talk in Congress,” New York Times, May 18, 1932, p. 20.
19. Irving Fisher, 1930, p. 63.
20. Thomas Mullen, quoted in “Money to Move as Fear Leaves, ‘Ad’ Men Told,” Christian Science
Monitor, June 15, 1931.
21. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1933, http://www.gutenberg.org/files
/104/104-h/104-h.htm.
22. Goodreads. com lists “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself” as the most famous out of 139
famous Franklin Roosevelt quotes, in terms of “likes.” https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/219075
.Franklin_D_Roosevelt.
23. Langlois and Durocher, 2011.
24. “In the Wake of Unemployment,” Hartford Courant, November 8, 1931, p. E5.
25. Roosevelt, first fireside chat, March 12, 1933, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6nYKRLOFWg.
26. W. M. Kiplinger, “Causes of Our Unemployment: An Economic Puzzle,” New York Times, August
17, 1930, p. 111.
27. Lindbeck and Snower, 2001.
28. Eichengreen,1996; Eichengreen and Temin, 2000.
29. Marx, 2017 [1959], beginning of chap. 15.