Altered Forms and Circumstances
The perception from time to time of “economic strength” is driven by narratives,
notably an other-people’s-confidence narrative (discussed in chapter 10) that is
for those times outcompeting other, less optimistic narratives. All narratives have
their own internal dynamics, and this “strength” may well be ephemeral. With
the Great Recession of 2007–9, we saw a rapid drop in confidence and return of
a 1929 stock market crash narrative (chapter 16). The same could happen swiftly
again as a result of a small mutation in the narratives or change in circumstances.
The keep-up-with-the-Joneses narrative (discussed in chapter 11) seems
especially strong at this writing in the United States. President Donald J. Trump
models ostentatious living. In addition, there appears to be less generosity
toward hungry families. There had been a distinct downtrend in US charitable
giving for basic needs even before Trump’s presidency. Research at the Indiana
University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy reveals a 29% decline in real,
inflation-corrected, basic-needs charity from 2001 to 2014.2 These declines in
the modesty and compassion narratives extend to a lower willingness to help the
world’s emerging countries.
The intelligent machines narratives (chapters 13 and 14) are still much talked
about, though they do not seem to have much economic impact at the moment.
Machines do not seem to be very scary at the time of this writing, but should
there be some adverse news about income inequality or unemployment, the
contagion of scary forms of this narrative could reappear. A sudden increase in
concerns about robots has happened before. A search on ProQuest News &
Newspapers for articles containing both robot and jobs reveals that the number
of articles almost tripled between the last six months of 2007 and the first six
months of 2009. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research,
December 2007 was the peak month before the Great Recession, and the
recession ended in June 2009.

New Technology Will Change Contagion Rates and Recovery
Rates
Notable changes in information technology, with changes in contagion rates and
recovery rates, have occurred over the course of history. The early invention of
printed books in China, the invention of Gutenberg’s printing press in the
fifteenth century, the invention of newspapers in Europe in the seventeenth
century, the invention of the telegraph and telephone in the nineteenth century,
the invention of radio and television in the twentieth, and the rise of the Internet
and social media have all fundamentally altered the nature of contagion, but to
date there has been no systematic quantitative study of these inventions’ impact
on contagion.
Social media and search engines have the potential to alter the fundamentals
of contagion. In the past, ideas spread in a random, non-systematic way. Social
media platforms make it possible for like-minded people with extremist views to
find each other and further reinforce their unusual beliefs. Contagion is not
slowed down by fact-checkers. In contrast, the Internet and social media allow
ideas to be spread with central control that is nonetheless poorly visible.
Designers of social media and search engines have the ability to alter the nature
of contagion, and society is increasingly demanding that they do so to prevent
devious use of the Internet and the spread of fake news.
But changing communications technology isn’t the only factor that can
influence contagion rates. It isn’t always even the biggest factor.
Cultural factors are also at work. History has shown changes in face-to-face
spoken word use that likely affect the nature of contagion. For example, in the
1800s, literature would be read aloud in the salon and in the family circle,
fashions that were especially prominent in the middle of the nineteenth century.
Both the salon and the family circle reading began to fade at the turn of the
century, as the Washington Post noted in 1899:
Reading aloud to the children and in the family circle—how fast it is
becoming one of the lost arts. What multitudes of children of former days
were entertained, and instructed, by this practice, and how few there are who
are so entertained and instructed nowadays. Children now, after being taught
to read, join that great army which takes in the printed word, swiftly and