90 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER USA FRA IND ESP JPN GBR EUR RUS NLD CHN DEU -2 -1 0 1 2 DEBT BURDEN (UP = WORSE FINANCIAL POSITION) USA GBR EUR CHN JPN RUS IND 0% 20% 40% 60% 10% 30% 50% RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS 16 16 Individual European countries are not shown on the reserve currency status gauge due to the European Monetary Union (all these countries use the euro)—so only the Europe aggregate is shown. The measure shows an average of what share of global transactions, debts, and official central bank reserve holdings are denominated in each country’s currency. 91 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER NLD FRA JPN USA CHN ESP GBR DEU RUS -1.5 0.0 1.5 2.5 -1.0 1.0 -0.5 0.5 2.0 RELATIVE INTERNAL CONFLICT GAUGE Z-SCORE FOR MAJOR POWERS TODAY (UP = MORE CONFLICT) 1780 1900 1810 2020 1870 1960 1930 1840 1990 1 3 -1 0 2 USA INTERNAL CONFLICT GAUGE Z-SCORE (UP = MORE CONFLICT) 92 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER Political Conflict -3 0 3 -2 2 -1 1 4 5 1780 1840 1900 1960 2020 1780 1840 1900 1960 2020 Internal Strife -3 -2 1 3 0 -1 2 USA INTERNAL CONFLICT GAUGE BREAKDOWN USA JPN USA DEU GBR DEU USA CHN USA GBR CHN GBR CHN JPN GBR JPN USA RUS 0.0 -0.8 0.4 -0.4 0.8 LATEST INTERCOUNTRY CONFLICT Z-SCORE (UP = MORE CONFLICT) 93 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER 1970 2010 1980 2020 2000 1990 0.0 -0.8 0.4 -0.4 0.8 USA-CHINA CONFLICT GAUGE Z-SCORE USA EUR FRA CHN IND RUS JPN ESP DEU GBR NLD -1 0 -2 1 2 CURRENT MILITARY STRENGTH (UP = STRONGER) 94 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER Indian famine Spanish flu Indian and Chinese famines China’s Great Leap Forward Series of Indian famines Cocoliztli epidemics Russian famine French famine HIV/ AIDS COVID-19 GLOBAL DEATHS BY CATEGORY (RATE PER 100K PEOPLE) Famines Natural Disasters Pandemics 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 1000 500 1500 2000 1900 1940 1980 2020 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE VS 1961–1990 AVG (ºC, SINCE 0 CE) Carbon Dioxide Concentration (PPM) Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies (ºC) 270 350 430 310 390 1.2 0.0 -0.4 0.8 0.4 Medieval Warm Period Little Ice Age -1.0 0.0 1.0 -0.5 0.5 95 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER 1970 2010 1980 2020 2000 1990 0 150 250 50 100 200 NUMBER OF NATURAL CATASTROPHIC EVENTS 1970 2010 1980 2020 2000 1990 0 150 350 50 100 250 300 200 TOTAL LOSSES FROM CATASTROPHES SINCE 1970 (2020 USD, BLN) Hurricane Katrina Japan, NZ earthquake Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria Annual 5yr Average 96 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER NLD FRA TUR CAN EUR USA RUS SAR CHN SGP PHP GBR JPN ITA DEU AUS KOR ESP SAF BRZ MEX MAL IDR IND TLD -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY (UP = MORE VULNERABLE) 97 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER CURRENT READINGS ACROSS MAJOR POWERS (Z-Score and 20-Year Change Denoted by Arrows) GAUGE QUALITY USA CHN EUR DEU EMPIRE SCORE (0–1) 0.87 0.75 0.55 0.37 Debt Burden (Big Economic Cycle) Good -1.8 0.3 -0.3 1.6 Expected Growth (Big Economic Cycle) Good -0.7 0.4 -1.0 -1.0 Internal Conflict (Internal Order; low is bad) Good -2.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 Education Good 2.0 1.6 0.3 -0.2 Innovation & Technology Good 2.0 1.5 0.4 -0.1 Cost Competitiveness Good -0.4 1.2 -0.6 -0.6 Military Strength Good 1.9 1.0 0.3 -0.6 Trade Good 1.1 1.8 1.3 0.6 Economic Output Good 1.7 1.8 0.6 -0.1 Markets & Financial Center Good 2.6 0.5 0.4 -0.2 Reserve Currency Status (0–1) Good 0.55 0.04 0.23 Geology Good 1.4 0.9 -0.4 -0.7 Resource-Allocation Efficiency OK 1.3 0.0 -0.8 0.6 Acts of Nature OK -0.2 -0.1 0.0 1.1 Infrastructure & Investment Good 0.7 2.7 0.2 -0.3 Character/Civility/Determination OK 1.1 1.5 -1.0 -0.5 Governance/Rule of Law Good 0.7 -0.7 -0.4 0.7 Gaps in Wealth, Opportunity & Values OK -1.6 -0.4 0.3 0.7 98 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER GAUGE QUALITY JPN IND GBR FRA EMPIRE SCORE (0–1) 0.30 0.27 0.27 0.25 Debt Burden (Big Economic Cycle) Good -0.4 0.1 -1.6 -0.8 Expected Growth (Big Economic Cycle) Good -1.1 1.1 -0.8 -0.9 Internal Conflict (Internal Order; low is bad) Good 1.1 -0.3 -0.1 Education Good 0.2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.5 Innovation & Technology Good 0.2 -1.2 -0.3 -0.5 Cost Competitiveness Good -0.3 2.4 -0.3 -0.6 Military Strength Good -0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 Trade Good -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 Economic Output Good -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 Markets & Financial Center Good 0.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.3 Reserve Currency Status (0–1) Good 0.07 0.0 0.07 Geology Good -1.1 0.3 -0.9 -0.5 Resource-Allocation Efficiency OK 0.1 0.2 0.3 -1.3 Acts of Nature OK 1.5 -2.4 0.4 0.0 Infrastructure & Investment Good -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 Character/Civility/Determination OK 0.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.5 Governance/Rule of Law Good 0.8 -1.1 1.2 0.3 Gaps in Wealth, Opportunity & Values OK 0.9 -1.8 -0.2 1.1 99 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER GAUGE QUALITY NLD RUS ESP EMPIRE SCORE (0–1) 0.25 0.23 0.20 Debt Burden (Big Economic Cycle) Good 0.8 1.0 -1.7 Expected Growth (Big Economic Cycle) Good -0.8 -0.2 -1.1 Internal Conflict (Internal Order; low is bad) Good 1.2 -0.5 -0.4 Education Good -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 Innovation & Technology Good -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 Cost Competitiveness Good -0.8 0.7 -0.6 Military Strength Good -1.9 0.4 -0.8 Trade Good -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 Economic Output Good -0.3 -1.4 -0.9 Markets & Financial Center Good -0.5 -1.1 -0.6 Reserve Currency Status (0–1) Good 0.0 Geology Good -0.5 1.9 -0.6 Resource-Allocation Efficiency OK -0.1 1.3 -1.6 Acts of Nature OK 0.5 -0.1 -0.7 Infrastructure & Investment Good -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 Character/Civility/Determination OK -0.3 0.1 -1.0 Governance/Rule of Law Good 1.0 -1.9 -0.7 Gaps in Wealth, Opportunity & Values OK 0.6 0.4 100 THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER -2% 0% 3% 5% 7% -1% 2% 1% 4% 6% REAL GDP GROWTH ESTIMATE (NEXT 10 YEARS, ANN) IND IDR CHN TUR MEX SAF COL PLD RUS TLD SWE CHI HUN KOR SGP BRZ AUS CZK CHE USA CAN NLD BEL GBR ARG PRT FRA NOR DEU JPN ESP ITA GRC