[15]Historians require more than 1,000 deaths a year to call such internal conflict a civil war. [16]Notably after the Napoleonic Wars (when the then-new world order was established at the Congress of Vienna in 1815), Western Europe and particularly the UK by and large experienced 100 years of peace and prosperity and great wealth creation until World War I developed in 1914, which was followed by a very painful and turbulent 30 years. [17]In some nondemocratic countries, capitalists were also killed. [18]The Roman Republic and Athens both had democratic elements, but not everyone was able to participate or vote equally. Although democracies have existed for thousands of years, it is only recently that most people were allowed to vote. For example, in the US African American men were not universally allowed to vote until 1870, and women of all races until 1920. [19]Note: shade of coloring indicates degree of polarization. [20]Though it is unlikely that a third party of moderates could elect a president or large numbers of senators or representatives soon, it wouldn’t take much to elect the few whose votes would be needed by the opposing parties to get what they want passed, which would give these moderates great power. It also, with time, would give moderate voters and moderate politicians a party to go to that could better reflect their desired positions, which could negate some of the pull to the extremes. [21]Aristotle, Politics, IV.11 (translated by Stephen Everson) [22]Japan in 1988-90, the US in 1929, the US in 2006-07, Brazil and most other Latin American commodity producers in 1977-79 are classic examples. [23]https://www.britannica.com/topic/Golden-House-of-Nero [24]https://www.britannica.com/biography/Louis-XIV-king-of-France [25]https://www.britannica.com/biography/Wanli [26]Note: a couple cities have a positive net worth (liquid assets in excess of liabilities), appearing as negative on the charts. Analysis based on data from a variety of US government organizations and Truth in Accounting’s January 2020 report: Financial State of the Cities. Bridgewater Daily Observations is prepared by and is the property of Bridgewater Associates, LP and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment needs, objectives or tolerances of any of the recipients. Additionally, Bridgewater's actual investment positions may, and often will, vary from its conclusions discussed herein based on any number of factors, such as client investment restrictions, portfolio rebalancing and transactions costs, among others. Recipients should consult their own advisors, including tax advisors, before making any investment decision. This report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned. Bridgewater research utilizes data and information from public, private and internal sources, including data from actual Bridgewater trades. Sources include the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Capital Economics, CBRE, Inc., CEIC Data Company Ltd., Consensus Economics Inc., Corelogic, Inc., CoStar Realty Information, Inc., CreditSights, Inc., Dealogic LLC, DTCC Data Repository (U.S.), LLC, Ecoanalitica, EPFR Global, Eurasia Group Ltd., European Money Markets Institute – EMMI, Evercore ISI, Factset Research Systems, Inc., The Financial Times Limited, GaveKal Research Ltd., Global Financial Data, Inc., Haver Analytics, Inc., ICE Data Derivatives, IHSMarkit, The Investment Funds Institute of Canada, International Energy Agency, Lombard Street Research, Mergent, Inc., Metals Focus Ltd, Moody’s Analytics, Inc., MSCI, Inc., National Bureau of Economic Research, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Pensions & Investments Research Center, Renwood Realtytrac, LLC, Rystad Energy, Inc., S&P Global Market Intelligence Inc., Sentix Gmbh, Spears & Associates, Inc., State Street Bank and Trust Company, Sun Hung Kai Financial (UK), Refinitiv, Totem Macro, United Nations, US Department of Commerce, Wind Information (Shanghai) Co Ltd, Wood Mackenzie Limited, World Bureau of Metal Statistics, and World Economic Forum. While we consider information from external sources to be reliable, we do not assume responsibility for its accuracy. The views expressed herein are solely those of Bridgewater as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Bridgewater may have a significant financial interest in one or more of the positions and/or securities or derivatives discussed. Those responsible for preparing this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including, among other things, the quality of their work and firm revenues.