Conclusion
My study of history has taught me that nothing is forever other than evolution, and within evolution there are
cycles that are like tides that come in and go out and that are hard to change or fight against. To handle these
changes well it is essential to know what part of the cycle one is in and to know timeless and universal principles
for dealing with them. As conditions change the best approaches change—i.e., what is best depends on the
circumstances and the circumstances are always changing in the ways we just looked at. History shows us that the
best internal systems/orders depend on the circumstances at the time. For that reason it is a mistake to rigidly
believe that any economic or political system is always best because there will certainly come times that that
system is not best for the circumstances at hand, and if a society doesn’t adapt it will die. That is why constantly
reforming systems to adapt well is best. The test of any system is simply how well it works in delivering what
most of the people want. The effectiveness of any system can be objectively measured, which we will continue to
do. Having said that, the lesson from history that comes through most loudly and most clearly is that skilled
collaborations to produce productive win-win relationships to both grow and divide the pie well, so that most
people are happy, is much more rewarding and much less painful than fighting civil wars over wealth and power
that lead to one side subjugating the other side.
Appendix: US State and City Indebtedness, Inequality, and Income Picture

Here’s the same cut, looking at the 30 largest cities.26

Appendix: Major Empires

*Note: these figures are rough and try to capture the point from rising global power to the point of declining
global influence (this is most relevant for many of the European powers that may have existed beyond the dates
shown).
[1]To get a rich picture of what makes great leaders great in different types of circumstances I recommend Henry
Kissinger’s upcoming book on leadership.
[2]There are a lot of developments and changes in psychology behind these cycles, which range from good
developments and corresponding emotions that lead to harmony and effectiveness in Stages 2 and 3 to bad
developments and emotions that lead to fighting and ineffectiveness in Stages 5, 6, and 1. Because each stage is
distinctive—e.g., Stage 5 looks almost opposite to Stage 3—it is easy to see which stage any country is in, though
the exact points of transition can be challenging to identify since the transitions tend to blend into each other.
[3]See Appendix for more detail on the duration of major empires through time.
[4]Based on historical analysis of nine great powers (covering about 2,200 years of history in total). The likelihood
of conflict is based on major cases of civil war, rebellion, and revolution but excludes peaceful revolutions that did
not change the existing system. The analysis does not count the probability of conflict arising in a period when a
country is already in the midst of internal conflict (and the five years following) to avoid counting periods in which
economic conditions were bad because of the conflict itself.