very high political position and had just left government service, we explored what he would do next. I asked him
what he was most passionate about. He said, “Of course helping my country.” I asked him whether he would
consider running for elected office, and he explained that while he was willing to die for his country he couldn’t
bring himself to run for public office because of how enemies would use the media and social media to make up
lies to harm his family as well as himself. Ironically, the result of such untruthful media attacks is less free speech:
this general and almost everyone I know who I wish the world could hear what they honestly think are afraid to
speak openly because they fear that attacks by extremists who oppose them will be enabled and amplified by the
sensationalistic media. Many of my friends tell me that I’m crazy to speak so openly about controversial things
such as those covered in this book because it is inevitable that some people or groups will try to take me down via
the media. I think they are probably right, but I won’t let the risks dissuade me.14
+ Rule-Following Fades and Raw Fighting Begins
History has shown that when the causes that people are passionately behind are more important to them than
the system for making decisions, the system is in jeopardy. Rules and laws work only when a) they are crystal
clear and b) most people value working within them enough that they are willing to compromise in order to
make them work well. If both of these are less than excellent, the legal system is in jeopardy. If the competing
parties are unwilling to try to be reasonable with each other and to make decisions civilly in pursuit of the well-
being of the whole, which will require them to give up things that they want and might win in a fight, there will be
a sort of “civil war” that will test the relative powers of the relevant parties. In this stage, winning at all costs is the
game and playing dirty is the norm. Late in Stage 5 is when reason is abandoned in favor of passion. When
winning becomes the only thing that matters, unethical fighting becomes progressively more forceful in self-
reinforcing ways. When everyone has opinions that they are fighting for and no one can agree on anything, the
system is on the brink of civil war/revolution.
 
This typically happens in a couple of ways:
Late in Stage 5 it is common for the legal and police systems to be used as political weapons by those who
can control them. Also private police systems form—e.g., thugs who beat people up and take their assets,
and bodyguards to protect people from these things happening to them. For instance, the Nazi party formed
a paramilitary wing before it came to power that then became an official force when the Nazis were in power.
So did the short-lived British Union of Fascists in the 1930s. The Ku Klux Klan in the US was effectively a
paramilitary group as well. Such cases were quite normal, so view their development as a marker of moving
to the next stage.
Late in Stage 5 there are increasing numbers of protests that become increasingly violent. Because there is
not always a clear line between a healthy protest and the beginnings of a revolution, leaders in power often
struggle over how to allow protests without giving the perceived freedom to revolt against the system.
Leaders must manage these situations well. A classic dilemma arises when demonstrations start to push the
limits of revolution. Both giving the freedom to protest and suppressing protests are risky paths for leaders, as
either path could lead the revolution to get strong enough to topple the system. No system allows people to
bring down the system—in most, an attempt to do so is treason, typically punishable by death. Nonetheless, it
is the job of revolutionaries to bring down systems, so governments and revolutionaries test each other to see
what the limits are. When broad-based discontent bubbles up and those in power allow it to grow, it can boil
over to the point that when they try to put a lid on it, it explodes. The conflicts in the late part of Stage 5
typically build up to a crescendo that triggers the violent fighting that signifies the transition into what
historians stamp as the official civil-war periods, which I am identifying as Stage 6 in the Big Cycle. People
dying in the fighting is the marker that almost certainly signifies the progression to the next and more
violent civil-war stage, which will continue until the winners and losers are clearly determined.
That brings me to my next principle: when in doubt get out. If you don’t want to be in a civil war or a war, you
should get out while the getting is good. History has shown that when things get bad, the doors typically close for
people who want to leave. The same is true for investments and money as countries introduce capital controls and
other measures during such times.