communism and that of the right took the form of fascism while nonviolent revolutionary changes took place in
the US and UK. More recently, in the United States, the election of Donald Trump in 2016 was a move to
populism of the right while the popularity of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
reflects the popularity of populism of the left. There are increased political movements toward populism in a
number of countries. It can be said that the election of Joe Biden reflects a desire for less extremism and more
moderation, though time will tell.
The following chart shows a populism index that is based on a combination of populists who were elected to
office and populist vote share. The election shift from the Trump populist, anti-establishment presidency to the
Biden moderate, establishment presidency is what led the index to fall from its highly elevated level. Still it
remains relatively high, though Biden scored as a moderate. Note that voters on both sides score high for
supporting populists, as reflected in US election results and polling data, which makes clear how evenly and
extremely divided the country is.
Along with the rise of populists come more extreme positions on both sides and increased polarization.
Right now there is an exceptional amount of polarization in the US as reflected in the stats. In Chapter 8 I
showed you charts of the Republican and Democratic voting records of those in the Senate and House of
Representatives being the largest and the party-line voting being the greatest since 1900. Survey data about the
sentiments of the voters who elected these representatives paints a similar picture of polarization and
intransigence. For example, in a 2019 Pew survey 55% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats view the other as
more immoral than average Americans, and 61% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats say that those of the other
party don’t share their values. When asked whether they had warm or cold feelings to those of the other party, 79%
of Democrats and 83% of Republicans had cold or very cold feelings for members of the other party, with 57% of
Democrats and 60% of Republicans reporting very cold feelings about members of the other party.7 Another study
reported that 80% of Democrats think that the Republican Party has been taken over by racists and 82% of
Republicans think that the Democratic Party has been taken over by socialists.8 A 2020 study showed that nearly
half of Republican parents and a third of Democratic parents would be displeased if their child married someone
from the other political party. This compares with about 5% for both parties in 1960.9 One recent survey showed
that 15% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats thought the country would be better if large numbers of the other
side “just died.”10 Based on these and other surveys, it appears that large numbers of members of both parties are
more inclined to fight for deeply held preferences rather than compromise. While who is president has changed,
the people have not changed, and in the long run what happens in a democracy depends on what the people
are like in dealing with the system.
Watch populism and polarization as markers. The more populism and polarization there is, the further along
the cycle a nation is in Stage 5, and the closer it is to civil war and revolution. In Stage 5, moderates become
the minority. In Stage 6, they cease to exist.
+ Class Warfare
In Stage 5 class warfare intensifies. That is because, as a rule, during times of increased hardship and conflict
there is an increased inclination a) to look at people in stereotypical ways as members of one or more classes
and b) to look at these classes as either being evil enemies or good allies. It is important to watch whether or not