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Chapter 8
The Archetypical Cycle of Internal Order and Disorder
Published 12/03/20
The Cycle of Internal Order and Disorder & Where We Are in It
How people are with each other is the primary driver of the outcomes they get. Within countries there are systems
or “orders” for governing how people are supposed to behave with each other. These systems and the actual
behaviors of people operating within them produce their consequences. In the next two chapters we will explore
the timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that shape the internal orders that people have and the
behaviors that drive the shifts between periods of order and periods of disorder.
We are now seeing growing disorder in a number of leading countries around the world, most importantly in the
United States. I wanted to put that disorder into context so I did the research I am sharing in these chapters.
Because how the US handles its disorder will have profound implications for Americans, others around the world,
and most economies and markets, in these two chapters I am focusing more on the US than on other countries,
though I will follow these chapters with examinations of other leading countries.
The following chart shows in a simplified way where the US is within the archetypical Big Cycle as determined by
the previously described measures that drive the rise and decline of empires. It is in this stage when there are bad
financial conditions and intensifying conflict. Classically this stage comes after periods of great excesses in
spending and debt and the widening of wealth and political gaps and before there are revolutions and civil wars.
The United States is at a tipping point in which it could go from manageable internal tension to revolution and/or
civil war. To be clear, I am not saying that the United States or other countries are inevitably headed that way;
however, I am saying that now is an especially important time to know and watch the markers in order to
understand the full range of possibilities for the period ahead. In this chapter, I explore those markers by drawing
on the lessons from analogous historical cases.
Because the subject is so important I want it to be complete, which has made it more than 40 pages long, so I put it
in two chapters: Chapter 8 is “The Archetypical Cycle of Internal Order and Disorder” and Chapter 9 is “Delving
into the Six Stages of the Internal Cycle with a Particular Focus on the US Now.”
Remember: if you want to get through this quickly you can just read the highlights, which are in bold. Principles
are in bold and italics.
Chapter 8: The Archetypical Cycle of Internal Order and Disorder