The Military War
I am not a military expert but I get to speak with military experts and I do research on the subject so I will pass
along what has been given to me. Take it or leave it at your own peril.
It is impossible to visualize what the next major war will be like, though it probably will be much worse than
most people imagine. That is because a lot of weaponry has been developed in secret and because the creativity
and capabilities to inflict pain have grown enormously in all forms of warfare since the last time most powerful
weapons were used and seen in action. There are now more types of warfare than one can imagine and, within
each, more weapons systems than anyone knows. While of course nuclear warfare is a scary prospect I have heard
equally scary prospects of biological, cyber, chemical, space, and other types of warfare. Many of these have been
untested so there is a lot of uncertainty about how they will work.
Based on what we do know the headline is that a) the United States and China’s geopolitical war in the East
and South China Seas is escalating militarily because both sides are testing each other’s limits, b) China is
now militarily stronger than the United States in the East and South China Seas so the US would probably
lose a war in that region, while c) the United States is stronger around the world and overall and would
probably “win” a bigger war, though d) a bigger war is too complicated to imagine well because of the large
number of unknowns, including how some other countries would behave in it and what technologies secretly
exist. The only thing that most informed people agree on is that such a war would be unimaginably horrible.
Also notable, a) China’s rate of improvement in its military power, like its other rates of improvement, has
been extremely fast, especially over the last 10 years, and b) the rate of progress in the future is expected to
be even faster, especially if its economic and technological improvements continue to outpace those of the
United States. Some people imagine that China could achieve broad military superiority in 5-10 years.
As for potential locations of military conflict, Taiwan, the East and South China Seas, and North Korea are the
biggest hot spots, and India and Vietnam are the next biggest (for reasons I won’t digress into).
As far as a big hot war between the United States and China is concerned, it would include all the previously
mentioned types of wars plus more pursued at their maximums because, in a fight for survival, each would throw
all they have at the other, the way other countries in history have, so it would be World War III, and World War III
would likely be much more deadly than World War II, which was much more deadly than World War I because of
the technological advances that have been made in the ways we can hurt each other.
In thinking about the timing of a war, I keep in mind the principle that when countries have big internal disorder,
it is an opportune moment for opposing countries to aggressively exploit their vulnerabilities. For example, the
Japanese made their moves to take control of European colonies in Southeast Asia in the 1930s when the European
countries were challenged by their depressions and their conflicts. History has also taught us that when there are
leadership transitions and/or weak leadership, at the same time that there is big internal conflict, the risk of the
enemy making an offensive move should be considered elevated. For example, those conditions could exist in the
upcoming US presidential election. However, because time is on China’s side (because of the trends of
improvements and weakenings shown in prior charts), if there is to be a war, it is in the interest of the Chinese to
have it later (e.g., 5-10 years from now when it will likely be more self-sufficient and stronger) and in the interest
of the US to have it sooner.
I’m now going to add two other types of war—1) the culture war, which will drive how each side will approach
these circumstances, including what they would rather die for than give up, and 2) the war with ourselves, which
will determine how effective we are, which will lead us to be strong or weak in the critical ways that we previously
explored.