period of major change never seen in a century. No matter what these changes bring, China will remain resolute
and confident in its defense of national sovereignty and security.”5
Regarding influence around the world, for both the United States and China there are certain areas that
each finds most important, primarily on the basis of proximity (they care most about countries and areas
closest to them) and/or obtaining essentials (e.g., they care most about not being cut off from essential
minerals and technologies), and to a lesser extent their export markets. The areas that are most important to
the Chinese are first those that they consider to be part of China, second those on their borders (e.g., in the China
Seas) and those in key supply lanes (e.g., Belt and Road countries) or those that are suppliers of key imports, and
third other countries of economic or strategic importance for alliances, in that order.
Over the past few years China has significantly expanded its activities in these strategically important countries,
especially Belt and Road countries, resource-rich developing countries, and some developed countries, which is
having a greater role in affecting geopolitical relations. These activities are economic and occur via increasing
investments in targeted countries (e.g., loans, purchases of assets, building infrastructure facilities such as roads
and stadiums, and providing military and other supports to countries’ leaders) while the US is receding from
providing to these places. This economic globalization has been so extensive that most countries have had to think
hard about their policies regarding allowing the Chinese to buy assets within their borders.
Generally speaking the Chinese appear to want tributary-like relationships with most non-rival countries,
though the closer their proximity to China, the greater the influence China wants over them. In reaction to
these changing circumstances most countries, in varying degrees, are wrestling with the question of whether
it is better to be aligned with the United States or China, with those in closest proximity needing to give the
most consideration to this question. In discussions with leaders in different parts of the world I have repeatedly
heard it said that there are two overriding considerations—economics and military. They almost all say that if they
were to choose on the basis of economics, they would choose China because China is more important to them
economically (in trade and capital flows), while if they were to choose on the basis of military support, the United
States has the edge but the big question is whether the United States will be there to protect them militarily when
they need protection. Most doubt that the US will fight for them, and some in the Asia-Pacific region question
whether the US has the power to win if it wanted to.
The economics that China is providing these countries is significant and is working in a way that is broadly similar
to the way the United States provided economic benefits to key countries after World War II to help secure the
desired relationships. America’s influence relative to China’s influence is fading fast. It was not many years ago
that there were no significant rivals to the United States so it was quite easy for the United States to simply express
its wishes and find that most countries would comply; the only rival powers were the Soviet Union (which wasn’t
much of a rival), its allies, and a few of the developing countries that were not economic rivals. Over the last few
years Chinese influence over other countries has been expanding while US influence has been receding. That
is also true in multilateral organizations—e.g., the United Nations, the IMF, the World Bank, the World
Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, the International Court of Justice—most of which
were set up by the United States at the beginning of the American world order. As the United States has
been pulling back from them, these organizations are weakening and China is playing a greater role in
them.
Over the next 5-10 years, in addition to there being the decouplings6 in other areas, we will be seeing which
countries align themselves with each of these leading powers. Beyond money and military power, how China
and the US interact with other countries (i.e., how they use their soft powers) will influence how these
alliances will be made—i.e., style and values will matter. For example, over the last few years I have heard
leaders around the world describe both countries’ leaders as “brutal,” which is creating increased fears that
they will be punished if they don’t do exactly what these two countries’ leaders want, and they don’t like it
to the point of being driven into the other’s arms. It will be important to see what these alliances will look
like because throughout history the most powerful country is typically taken down by alliances of less powerful
countries that are collectively stronger. Perhaps the most interesting relationship to watch is between China and
Russia. Since the new world order began in 1945, among China, Russia, and the United States, two out of the three
of them have allied to neutralize or overpower the third. Russia and China each has a lot of what the other needs
(e.g., natural resources and military equipment for China from Russia and financing for Russia from China). Also,