The Geopolitical War
Sovereignty, especially as it relates to the Chinese mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the East and South
China Seas, is probably China’s biggest issue. As you might imagine, the “100 years of humiliation” period
and the invasions by foreign “barbarians” during it gave Mao and the Chinese leaders to this day
compelling reasons to a) have complete sovereignty within their borders, b) get back the parts of China that
were taken away from them (e.g., Taiwan and Hong Kong), and c) never be so weak that they can be pushed
around by foreign powers. China’s desire for sovereignty and to maintain its distinct ways of doing things (i.e.,
its culture) are why the Chinese reject American demands for them to change Chinese internal policies (e.g., to be
more democratic, to handle Tibetans and the Uighurs differently, to dictate China’s dealing with Hong Kong and
Taiwan, etc.). In private some Chinese point out that they don’t dictate how the United States should treat people
within its borders. They also believe that the United States and European countries are culturally prone to
proselytizing—i.e., to imposing on others their values, their Judeo-Christian beliefs, their morals, and their ways of
operating—and that this inclination developed through the millennia, since before the Crusades. To them the
sovereignty risk and the proselytizing risk make a dangerous combination that could threaten China’s ability to be
all it can be by following the approaches that it believes are best. The Chinese believe that their having that
sovereignty and that ability to approach things that they believe is best as determined by their hierarchical
governance structure is uncompromisable. Regarding the sovereignty issue, they also point out that there are
reasons for them to believe that the United States would topple their government—i.e., the Chinese Communist
Party—if it could, which is also intolerable.4 These are the biggest existential threats that I believe the Chinese
would fight to the death to defeat and the United States must be careful in dealing with China if it wants to prevent
a hot war. For issues not involving sovereignty, I believe the Chinese expect to fight to influence them non-
violently but to avoid having a hot war over.
Probably the most dangerous important sovereignty issue that is difficult to imagine the peaceful resolution
of is the Taiwan issue. Many Chinese people believe that the United States will never follow through with its
implied promise to allow Taiwan and China to unite unless forced. They point out that when the US sells the
Taiwanese F-16s and other weapons systems it sure doesn’t look like the United States is facilitating the stated
goal of having the peaceful reunification of China. As a result, they believe that the only way to assure that China
is safe and united is to have the power to the oppose the US in the hope that the US will sensibly acquiesce when
faced with a greater Chinese power. My understanding is that China is now stronger militarily in that region. Also,
China is likely to get militarily stronger at a faster pace. So, as I mentioned earlier, I would worry a lot if we were
to see an emerging fight over sovereignty, especially if we were to see a “Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.” Would
the US fight to defend Taiwan? Uncertain. The US not fighting would be a great geopolitical win for China and a
great humiliation for the US. It would signal the decline of the American Empire in the Pacific and beyond in
much the same way as the British loss of the Suez Canal signaled the end of the British Empire and beyond. The
implications of that would extend well beyond that loss. For example, in the British case it signaled the end of the
British pound as a reserve currency. The more of a show the US makes of defending Taiwan the greater the
humiliation of a lost war or a retreat would be. That is concerning because the United States has been making quite
a show of defending Taiwan while destiny appears to be bringing that closer to a reality. If the US does fight, I
believe that a war with China over Taiwan that costs American lives would be very unpopular in the US and the
US will probably lose that fight, so the big question is whether that will lead to a broader war. That scares
everyone. Hopefully the fear of that great war and the destruction it would produce, like the fear of mutually
assured destruction, will prevent it.
At the same time, from my discussions it is my belief that China has a strong desire not to have a hot war with
the US or to forcibly control other countries (as distinct from having the desire to be all that it can be and to
influence countries within its region). I know that the Chinese leadership knows how terrible a hot war would be
and worries about unintentionally slipping into one the way World War I was unintentionally slipped into. They
would much prefer a cooperative relationship if such a relationship is possible and, I suspect, they would happily
divide the world into different spheres of influence. Still they have their “red lines” (i.e., limits to what can be
compromised on that if crossed would lead to a hot war) and they expect more challenging times ahead. For
example, as President Xi said in his 2019 New Year’s address, “Looking at the world at large, we are facing a