Chapter 7
US-China Relations and Wars
Published 09/25/20
Preface: In this chapter I will be looking at the positions that the US and China now find themselves in and what
being in these positions means for US-China relations. Because the US and China are now rival powers in a
number of domains, they are in “conflicts” or “wars” in these domains, so we will be looking at where these
stand. Because for the most part what we will be looking at are just new versions of old and classic conflicts (e.g.,
new technologies in a classic technology war, new weapons in a classic military war, etc.), we will be looking at
them in the context of what has happened repeatedly in history and with the timeless and universal principles we
learned from studying these cases. While I will be looking at the range of possibilities that one might consider, I
will be doing that without getting into what the future might look like. I will do that in “The Future,” the
concluding chapter of this book. In this chapter I will also be moving a bit more from just conveying facts to
sharing opinions (i.e., sharing my uncertain conjectures).
As with my other chapters if you want to quickly read this chapter you can read just that which is in bold and
if you want to read just the principles, you can read that which is in italics.
I will start by passing along three principles of mine about relationships that pertain to all relationships—between
people, between organizations, etc.—including the US-China relationship. Like any of my other principles you can
take them or leave them as you like. They are just what I have observed to be true and have worked for me. Feel
free to skip them if you’re not interested.
My main principle about relationships that I think is relevant to the US-China relationship is:
Both parties in a relationship can choose whether they will have a win-win cooperative-competitive
relationship or a lose-lose mutually threatening relationship, though it takes both of them to agree on what
type of relationship they will have. If they choose to have a primarily win-win cooperative-competitive
relationship they will take into consideration what is really important to the other and try to give it to them in
exchange for them reciprocating. In that type of win-win relationship, they can have tough negotiations done
with respect and consideration, competing like two friendly merchants at a bazaar or two friendly teams at
the Olympics. If they chose to have a lose-lose mutually threatening relationship they will primarily think
about how they can hurt the other in the hope of forcing the other into a position of fear in order to get what
they want. In that type of lose-lose relationship they will have more destructive wars than productive
exchanges. History has shown that small wars can get beyond anyone’s control and turn into big wars that
are much worse than even the leaders who chose this path imagined so that virtually all parties wish that they
chose the first path. Either side can force the second path on the other while it takes both sides to follow the
first path. In the back of the minds of all parties, regardless of which path they choose, should be their relative
powers. In the first case, the parties should realize what the other could force on them and appreciate the
quality of the exchange without getting too pushy, while in the second case, the parties should realize that
power will be defined by the relative abilities to endure pain as much as the relative abilities to inflict it.
When it isn't clear exactly how much power either side has to reward and punish the other, the first path is the
safer way because there is great uncertainty around how each side can hurt the other. On the other hand, the
second path will certainly make clear which party is dominant and which one will have to be submissive after
the hell of war is over. That brings me to my main power principle.
My main principle about power is:
Have power, respect power, and use power wisely. Having power is good because power will win out over
agreements, rules, and laws all the time. That’s because, when push comes to shove, those who have the
power either to enforce their interpretation of the rules and laws or to overturn the rules and laws will get
what they want. The sequence of using power is as follows. When there are disagreements, the parties
disagreeing will first try to resolve them without going to rules/laws by trying to agree on what to do by
themselves. If that doesn’t work, they will try using the agreements/rules/laws that they agreed to abide by. If
that doesn’t work, those who want to get what they want more than they respect the rules will resort to using