My Background
Though I’m no expert on Chinese culture and the Chinese way of operating, I have had numerous direct
experiences with China over nearly four decades, I have done extensive historical and economic research about
China, and I have a US and global perspective that has been gained because of my need to make practical
macroeconomic bets. That has given me an uncommon perspective of where China has been and what’s going on
with it now that might be helpful to those who haven’t had such an extensive exposure.
More specifically, the perspective I am passing along to you here has been gained from 36 years of interfacing
with Chinese people about Chinese and world issues (mostly economics and markets in China and the world) and
from doing a lot of research. Through my experiences and by getting to know some of China’s top leaders, in
addition to learning about Chinese economics and markets, I learned a lot about Chinese culture, how it operates
today, and how it has evolved over thousands of years: from notions of how family members and others should
behave with each other to Confucian thinking and neo-Confucian thinking, and through various dynasties and
modern leaders to the lessons these events provide about how leaders should lead and how followers should
follow. These typical Chinese values and ways of operating are what I’m referring to when I say “Chinese culture,”
which I have seen manifested over and over in my experiences and my research. For example, from my personal
experiences I could see how Lee Kuan Yew, the Prime Minister of Singapore, and Deng Xiaoping, the leader who
initiated China’s reform and opening up, were connected by Confucian values coexisting with capitalist practices
so that they together could explore how China could have a “socialist market economy with Chinese
characteristics.”
Over the last couple of years I have also undertaken the study of Chinese history as part of my study of the rises
and declines of empires and their currencies in order to learn the timeless and universal principles about how
empires rise and decline and to help me understand how the Chinese, especially their leaders, who are greatly
influenced by history, think. I did this study by researching deeply with the help of my research team and
triangulating with the some of the most knowledgeable Chinese, American, and non-American scholars and
practitioners on the planet. While I can be pretty sure about my impressions of the people and things that I had
direct contact with (which makes me a lot more certain about the assertions I am making about the Chinese than
about the Dutch and British empires I described earlier in this book), I of course can’t be as certain about the
people and circumstances that I haven’t had direct contact with. So my thoughts about them (e.g., especially
historical figures such as Mao Zedong) are more conjecture based on the extensive research I have tapped into.
Over my 36 years of experience with China, I have come to know many Chinese people from the lowest to some
of the highest in rank in an up-close and intimate way, and I have experienced China’s recent history just as I have
experienced America’s. As a result, I believe that I see both the American and Chinese perspectives pretty well. I
will do my best to convey them here. I urge those of you who haven’t spent considerable time in China to get rid of
any stereotypes you might have of the old “communist China” and to look past the pictures that are often painted
for you by biased parties who also haven’t spent much time there, because they’re wrong. I urge you to triangulate
whatever you are hearing or reading with people who have spent lots of time in China working with the Chinese
people. As an aside, I think that the blind and near-violent loyalties and media distortions that stand in the way of
thoughtfully exploring different perspectives are a frightening sign of our times.
To be clear, I’m not ideological and I don’t choose sides ideologically. For example, I don’t choose an American
side or a Chinese side based on whether it aligns with American, Chinese, or my own ideological beliefs. I’m
practical like a doctor who approaches things through logic and believes in what works well through time. My
study of history and my thinking about cause/effect relationships are what have led me to my beliefs about what
works well. What I believe is most important in making a country work well was laid out in 17 different measures
of strength at the beginning of this book and more narrowly in the eight measures I have been referring to
regularly. So, when I look at China, it is through the lens of these factors that I am judging it. I also try to see their
circumstances through their eyes. The only thing I can do is beg for your patience and open-mindedness as I share
what I’ve learned with you.
This chapter is a continuation of our look at the leading empires over the last 500 years, starting with the
Dutch and British empires in Chapter 3, and the US Empire in Chapter 4. In this chapter, we will touch on China’s