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Chapter 6
The Big Cycles of China and Its Currency
Published 09/14/20
Preface: Several people told me that it is risky for me to write this chapter because the US is in a type of war with
China and emotions are running high, so many Americans will be angry at me when I say complimentary things
about China, many Chinese will be angry at me when I say critical things about China, many people on both sides
who disagree with something I say will be angry at me for saying it, and many in the media will distort what I say.
However I can’t not speak openly out of fear of reprisals because the US-China relationship is too important and
too controversial to be left untouched by people who know both of these countries well, and for me not to speak
honestly about this situation would cost me my self-respect.
What I am passing along here is just the latest iteration of my learning process. My process is to learn through my
direct experiences and through my research, to write up what I have learned, to show it to smart people to have
them attack it in order to stress test it, to explore our differences, to evolve it some more, and do that over and over
again until I die. So this study is the product of my having done that for the past 36 years up until now. It is
incomplete, it is right and wrong in ways yet to be discovered, and it is provided to you to use or to criticize in the
spirit of helping us together find out what’s true.
This chapter is about China and Chinese history brought right up to this moment. It is meant to convey where the
Chinese are coming from. The next chapters are about US-China relations and wars that are extensions of the
backgrounds covered in the last two chapters and this chapter.