advisors, including tax advisors, before making any investment decision. This report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned. Bridgewater research utilizes data and information from public, private and internal sources, including data from actual Bridgewater trades. Sources include the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Capital Economics, CBRE, Inc., CEIC Data Company Ltd., Consensus Economics Inc., Corelogic, Inc., CoStar Realty Information, Inc., CreditSights, Inc., Dealogic LLC, DTCC Data Repository (U.S.), LLC, Ecoanalitica, EPFR Global, Eurasia Group Ltd., European Money Markets Institute – EMMI, Evercore ISI, Factset Research Systems, Inc., The Financial Times Limited, GaveKal Research Ltd., Global Financial Data, Inc., Haver Analytics, Inc., ICE Data Derivatives, IHSMarkit, The Investment Funds Institute of Canada, International Energy Agency, Lombard Street Research, Mergent, Inc., Metals Focus Ltd, Moody’s Analytics, Inc., MSCI, Inc., National Bureau of Economic Research, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Pensions & Investments Research Center, Renwood Realtytrac, LLC, Rystad Energy, Inc., S&P Global Market Intelligence Inc., Sentix Gmbh, Spears & Associates, Inc., State Street Bank and Trust Company, Sun Hung Kai Financial (UK), Refinitiv, Totem Macro, United Nations, US Department of Commerce, Wind Information (Shanghai) Co Ltd, Wood Mackenzie Limited, World Bureau of Metal Statistics, and World Economic Forum. While we consider information from external sources to be reliable, we do not assume responsibility for its accuracy. The views expressed herein are solely those of Bridgewater as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Bridgewater may have a significant financial interest in one or more of the positions and/or securities or derivatives discussed. Those responsible for preparing this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including, among other things, the quality of their work and firm revenues. Chapter 5 The Big Cycles of the United States and the Dollar, Part 2 Published 07/22/20 The New World Order from 1945 until Now As is typical after wars, World War II’s winning powers—most importantly the US, Britain, and the Soviet Union (then called “the Big Three”)—led meetings to create the new world order, which included carving up the world into geographic areas of control and establishing new money and credit systems. While France, China, and a couple of other countries were technically aligned with these winning countries, they were lesser players. And with Germany, Japan, and Italy defeated and broken by the war, they were neither leading nor independent powers; they were subordinate to and aligned with the US. Britain, which was essentially bankrupt, was also aligned with the US. The Soviet Union was the leading rival power that was not aligned with the US, so it formed its own camp with its own allies. While there was relatively good cooperation between the two camps immediately after the war, it didn’t take long for the world to become divided between the US-led capitalist/democratic camp and the Soviet-controlled communist/autocratic camp, each with its own monetary/economic systems, though there were a small number of less significant countries that were non- aligned. The chart below shows the aggregate power indices for the US, UK, Russia, and China since the end of the war, which conveys this big picture. We will now delve into this story more closely. The Post-War Geopolitical and Military System The three major powers and others got together in different conferences—the Yalta Conference, the Potsdam Conference, and the Bretton Woods Conference were the most notable—and carved up the world with US- controlled capitalist/democratic countries on one side and Soviet-controlled communist/autocratic countries on the other, with each bloc having its own monetary systems. Germany was split into pieces, with the United States, Great Britain, and France having control of West Germany and Russia controlling East Germany. Japan was under US control, and China returned to a state of civil war between communists and the capitalists (i.e., the Nationalists). Unlike after World War I when the United States chose to be relatively isolationist, after World War II the United States took the primary leadership role in the world as it had most of the economic, geopolitical, and military power. Geographically the US-led Western world extended east from the US through Western Europe into Germany, which was split into West Germany (which was controlled by the US and its allies) and East Germany along a line of division that became known as the Iron Curtain. East of that line, going through Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union to Korea was Soviet-controlled. Korea, like Germany, was split with the Soviets controlling the north and the Americans controlling the south. China, which was essentially left weak and in civil war, got back Shanghai