As I studied these factors, I knew that the short-term debt cycle was getting late and I knew that a downturn would
eventually come. I did not expect the global pandemic to be what brought it about, though I did know that past
pandemics and other acts of nature (like droughts and floods) have sometimes been important contributors to these
seismic shifts.
To gain the perspective I needed about these factors and what their confluence might mean, I looked at the rises
and declines of all the major empires and their currencies over the last 500 years, focusing most closely on the
three biggest ones: the US empire and the US dollar which are most important now, the British Empire and the
British pound which were most important before that, and the Dutch Empire and the Dutch guilder before that. I
also focused less closely on the other six other significant, though less dominant, empires of Germany, France,
Russia, Japan, China, and India. Of those six, I gave China the most attention and looked at its history back to the
year 600 because 1) China was so important throughout history, it’s so important now, and it will likely be even
more important in the future and 2) it provides many cases of dynasties rising and declining to look at to help me
better understand the patterns and the forces behind them. In these cases, a clearer picture emerged of how other
influences, most importantly technology and acts of nature, played significant roles. From examining all these
cases across empires and across time, I saw that important empires typically lasted roughly 250 years, give or take
150 years, with big economic, debt, and political cycles within them lasting about 50-100 years. By studying how
these rises and declines worked individually, I could see how they worked on average in an archetypical way, and
then I could examine how they worked differently and why. Doing that taught me a lot. My challenge is in trying
to convey it well.

Remember That What I Don’t Know Is Much Greater Than What I Know
In asking these questions, from the outset I felt like an ant trying to understand the universe. I had many more
questions than answers, and I knew that I was delving into numerous areas that others have devoted their lives to
studying. So I aggressively and humbly drew on knowledge of some remarkable scholars and practitioners, who
each had in-depth perspectives on some piece of the puzzle, though none had the holistic understanding that I
needed in order to adequately answer all my questions. In order to understand all the cause-effect relationships
behind these cycles, I combined my triangulation with historians (who specialized in different parts of this big,
complicated history) and policy makers (who had both practical experiences and historical perspectives) with an
examination of statistics drawn out of ancient and contemporary archives by my excellent research team and by
reading a number of superb books on history.
While I have learned an enormous amount that I will put to good use, I recognize that what I know is still only a
tiny portion of what I’d like to know in order to be confident about my outlook for the future. Still, I also know
from experience that if I waited to learn enough to be satisfied with my knowledge, I’d never be able to use or
convey what I have learned. So please understand that while this study will provide you with my very top-down,
big-picture perspective on what I’ve learned and my very low-confidence outlook for the future, you should
approach my conclusions as theories rather than facts. But please keep in mind that even with all of this, I have
been wrong more times than I can remember, which is why I value diversification of my bets above all else. So,
whenever I provide you with what I think, as I’m doing in this study, please realize that I’m just doing the best I
can to openly convey to you my thinking.
It’s up to you to assess for yourself what I’ve learned and do what you like with it.